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NOAA armed for 2012 hurricane season
Posted 6/8/2012
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by Nick Stubbs
6th Air Mobility Wing Public Affairs
6/8/2012 - MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. -- While most residents here are crossing their fingers and hoping hurricanes miss the area this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's chief of programs is "looking forward" to the 2012 storm season.
That's not to say James McFadden is hoping for plenty of hurricanes, just that he and the NOAA Aircraft Operations team here are excited to try out their new equipment: upgraded computer data systems and superior Doppler radar systems on WP-3D Orion and Gulfstream IV-SP hurricane monitoring aircraft.
"A lot of good things," McFadden said of the new equipment. "We're looking forward to our new capabilities."
Those new capabilities will pay off in a far greater degree of accuracy predicting storm tracks and strength, said McFadden. For 2012, the NOAA team expects to predict the path of hurricanes 20 percent better than last year. When it comes to projecting storm intensity, the new gear should provide 40 percent more accuracy.
This is a benefit for hurricane-prone areas such as MacDill AFB. For example, the forecasters of the 6th Operations Support Squadron weather flight here produce a tropical weather advisory using data from the NOAA aircraft anytime a storm, identified by the National Hurricane Center, is within 500 miles of MacDill AFB. The forecasters use this data and models to recommend hurricane condition updates to the wing commander.
"With these models being more accurate, the 6th OSS weather flight forecasters (can) provide the wing commander more accurate data to make decisions from," said Master Sgt. Corey Latiolais, of the 6th Operations Support Squadron Weather Flight.
On the downside for 2012, NOAA will be operating with only one of its P-3 Orion hurricane hunter planes, as its second aircraft will be down all season for long-term maintenance. That won't affect the capabilities of the NOAA team, however, as the organization will utilize an aggressive schedule of two flying missions a day -- for up to seven consecutive missions -- with two crews manning the other P-3. NOAA also has a much better equipped G-4 to help this season, along with several other support aircraft at the ready.
Dependence on a single P-3 this season means NOAA maintenance crews are taking extra precautions to ensure the operable P-3 is reliable, said Cmdr. Devin Brakob, the NOAA deputy chief of maintenance.
"We're doing a little more preventive maintenance, replacing things that don't typically fail, but were going ahead and doing it now (as a precaution)," said Brakob.
A single P-3 flying back-to-back missions should not pose a problem, Brakob said. In the past when one of the planes had maintenance issues, a single P-3 would be used for consecutive 12-hour missions until the problem was resolved.
NOAA is anticipating an "average" storm season, said McFadden. The official NOAA predictions released last week call for 12 to 18 named storms, with two to five major storms. But even if the season should turn out more active than predicted, the NOAA team at MacDill AFB is equipped and manned to handle it, said McFadden.
"Oh yeah, we're ready," he said, adding that the new radar systems installed on the P-3 and G-4 will give NOAA an edge through technology.
Knowing where a storm is heading and how strong it will be is the core NOAA mission once a storm develops. With the new equipment providing better accuracy in both of those categories, the public will have better information than ever for the 2012 hurricane season, predicted McFadden.
That information can save lives and help emergency management officials make the right call when it comes to evacuations and planning.
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