Weather flight reads the clouds over Kyrgyzstan

  • Published
  • By Staff Sgt. Lara Gale
  • 376th Air Expedtionary Wing Public Affairs
MANAS AIR BASE, Kyrgyzstan (AFPN) --  According to local climatology, this area of Kyrgyzstan wasn’t supposed to see thunder and lightning until May. 

But when the satellite picture started growing big patches of red April 6, the 376th Expeditionary Operations Support Squadron weather flight knew what it meant, said Staff Sgt. Robert Cook. 

Radios across base crackled the latest weather warning. The aircrew of a KC-135 Stratotanker returned to headquarters. A group of Airmen left the soccer field in the middle of a game. Lightning and rain was on tap for this early April day. 

Meteorologists in the weather flight here operate the most sophisticated weather station in this area of responsibility, with nearly a million dollars worth of weather-detecting equipment in various base locations. The tower outside their office captures local and regional satellite images, while wind vanes, temperature sensors and precipitation-measuring equipment on the flightline measure conditions on the ground. 

The information isn’t just for aircrews, though every aircrew is briefed before a flight about the weather they can expect to encounter. 

“We have customers throughout the whole base,” said Tech. Sgt. Jeffrey Godemann. “Everyone always wants to know (about) the weather.” 

Not only do Airmen need to know whether or not to don their Gortex in the morning, workplaces also use the information for critical decision-making, he said. The civil engineer flight, for instance, worked closely with the flight in the wintertime to prepare for snow removal. 

Much of the day-to-day business continues on base whatever the weather, but forecasting becomes especially important in planning. Most often this is to prepare for daily operations during a weather event, such as snow removal. Military officials have also used weather to their advantage in planning military operations. 

“Weather info is a force multiplier,” Sergeant Cook said.

“The Allies prevailed because of superior meteorology,” President Dwight D. Eisenhower once said of the battle at Normandy on D-Day.

In that critical battle, the weather enabled the Allies to surprise their enemy, ultimately gaining the upper hand in the war. U.S. military meteorologists detected a break in a storm the Germans didn’t. 

While such dramatic events are rare, the weather flight makes sure it is prepared with the most accurate weather information possible for its customers -- a challenge at this base, Sergeant Cook said.

“This is the hardest place I’ve ever forecasted out of,” Sergeant Godemann said.

The Tien Shan mountains run east to west, something not encountered in America, where the mountain ranges are all north-south. They’re also taller than anything in the states, catching weather systems higher and causing different reactions. 

Added to that is a lack of current and historical data on weather trends for most of Central Asia. Data is sparse since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the closest weather station with regular reporting is 200 miles away. This is why many online, computer-generated forecast sources are generally only about 50 percent accurate for this area, Sergeant Cook said. 

“That site is just a computer, there isn’t somebody there looking at the weather and adjusting it,” he said. 

There are principles to weather, said Capt. Andrew Frey, chief of the weather flight. But every rule has an exception, and it’s the job of the flight to take what the computer says and improve on it with the knowledge they have. 

The flight has climbed the steep learning curve quickly, though, with a strong record of accurate forecasting. 

Part of this is because they learn everything they can from their mistakes. Once a weather event happens, they can read back through the data to find where they analyzed something incorrectly -- improving for the next time. 

“We want to hear about it when we’re wrong,” said Sergeant Godeman. “You’re only as good as your last forecast.”