JEFX analyzes battlespace chain reactions

  • Published
  • By 1st Lt. Corinna M. Jones
  • Joint Expeditionary Force Experiment 2004 Public Affairs
NELLIS AIR FORCE BASE, Nev. (AFPN) --  Sun Tzu once said, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, the victory is not at risk.”

The strategy division of the Combined Air and Space Operations Center here is giving Sun Tzu’s strategy a whole new meaning with a new operational assessment tool being used as part of the Effects-based Operations and Predictive Battlespace Awareness Prototype, one of the 2004 initiatives.

JEFX is an Air Force chief of staff-sponsored experiment that assesses new and emerging technologies.

The prototype initiative provides new capabilities and machine-to-machine information flow between intelligence preparation of the battlespace, targeting, information collection management and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance management tools. The operational assessment tool is a comparatively simple concept that is being used to help assesses the probability of achieving commanders’ objectives by allowing warfighters to assess the effects of a target before executing the mission.

According to Maj. Stewart Greathouse, operational assessment team deputy chief, three steps are historically used in target planning: plan, execute and observe. During JEFX 04, the strategy plans division is adding a fourth step, analyze, assess and recommend, to the process. The operational assessment tool falls into the assess portion of the process.

“With this tool we can see if the results of our actions are good,” he said. “If the assessment doesn’t match the plan then we go back to the beginning. We want to predict with greater accuracy and pinpoint what moments will be decision-making opportunities.”

Though the concept is basic, the tool is a complex, computer-generated chart connecting all assets of the enemy, including command and control, air, ground and nautical support. When a target is hit, the chart computer considers the impact so warfighters can decide if the mission will result in the desired effect and if the target is a proportional response.

“This tool allows you to outline your thoughts and use a mathematical process to come up with a model of the enemy’s system,” Major Greathouse said. “We can track a decision from beginning to end and try to assess what the results of our actions will be and predict what would happen in a real scenario.”

Unlike most of the tools being used to help test initiatives during JEFX, the operational assessment tool is not a machine-to-machine concept. It is intelligence-based and requires intelligence professionals and mathematicians to enter the data into a main database. The end result is a chart that visually shows which targets will have the most impact and the chain reaction of each target.

“It lets us look at the physical model of a country, translate that into a logical model and then decide how we want to affect the physical model,” Major Greathouse said.

Once the data is entered, warfighters have a complete visual tool to aid in making targeting decisions.

“Right now we do this process in a round-about way,” he said. “Often, the ISR division is spread out between three rooms and it’s difficult to combine information into one coherent picture.”

The major explained that in a real-world situation, country and target experts and strategists identify targets and provide the information to create the Target System Analysis, a logical model of a country known as the Red Model. During JEFX 04, mathematicians and intel officers are entering information for the purpose of evaluating the program.

“In the real world, top-level analysis would play a major role, such as the Joint Warfare Analysis Center or the Defense Intelligence Center. It would take a higher level of coordination than what we bring into the CAOC,” Major Greathouse said.

The assessment phase of the target analysis process is necessary and an application such as the operational assessment tool could be the answer to giving warfighters a visual picture of the enemy’s assets, Major Greathouse said.

“We are breaking new ground at this event. Even the terminology isn’t mature,” he said. “But this has to be done. To do effects-based operations we have to have effects-based planning with detailed analysis of the enemy. We need a tool like this to help us do it.”

The operational assessment team chief, Maj. David Dietrich, agrees that warfighters need to be able to automatically observe effects.

“The concept is good and is one we haven’t tried before,” Major Dietrich said. “Right now we tend to look at a single target when we need to be able to look at the big picture.”

Major Dietrich said the operational assessment tool is useful and a good start, but is not yet practical because the concept is still being developed.

“This is a beginning point and I’m confident we have the technology to make this more useful and applicable to our warfighting ability,” he said. “I hope this concept will be back for JEFX 06.”