Officials: Troop withdrawals could begin next year Published July 28, 2005 By Gerry J. Gilmore American Forces Press Service BAGHDAD, Iraq (AFPN) -- A "fairly substantial" withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq could take place next spring or summer if the insurgency does not grow and the country's political process continues as scheduled, the commander of coalition forces said here July 27.U.S. Army Gen. George Casey, head of Multinational Force Iraq, spoke during a surprise visit to Iraq by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.At a later joint news conference with Secretary Rumsfeld, Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari said the departure of U.S. forces from his country depends on how soon Iraq can train, equip and field its own soldiers and police to take over security duties. "We do not want to be surprised," Minister Jaafari said in the event U.S. troops leave before the Iraqis are prepared to assume security.General Casey said the insurgency in Iraq has not substantially increased within the past year."The insurgents need to progress to survive, and this insurgency is not progressing," General Casey said.Instead of gaining strength, insurgents in Iraq have changed tactics, he said, to use "more violent, more visible" attacks on softer civilian targets. This is "a no-win strategy for the insurgents," General Casey said.